As the holidays approach, the grocery landscape is splitting into clear winners and grocers still searching for their edge. In this quarter’s update, we explore why fresh-format and value grocers are gaining ground, how Trader Joe’s keeps growing by doing things its own way, and how retailers are using Thanksgiving meal deals to win budget-conscious shoppers. Plus, as rising costs continue to squeeze household budgets, we look at what that means for grocery spending and shopper behavior
Fresh Format Grocers Show Strong Traffic Gains Due To Strong Consumer Demand for Health-Focused and Specialty Offerings
Fresh-format grocers — ones that offer smaller, healthier, and more convenient shopping experiences, with fresh produce and prepared foods at the core — had the highest year-to-date visits, up 5% from 2025, demonstrating that consumers want healthy offerings. The second highest store visit increase came from value grocers, including Aldi, Lidl, and Grocery Outlet, at 1.4%
Meanwhile, traditional grocer visits have declined by over 2% in the past three years. Amongst the traditional grocers, Publix has the highest share of nationwide grocery visits at 7.8% with Kroger right behind at 7.7%, and Aldi at 5.9%. This downturn suggests that traditional grocers need to differentiate themselves and are doing so by enticing customers with private label brands and loyalty programs.
Takeaway: Shoppers want better quality and lower prices and are willing to trade up if they feel it’s worth it.
Source: The 2026 Retail Intelligence Report: Consumer Trends
Trader Joe’s Continues Nationwide Expansion
Trader Joe’s will open 30 new stores in 16 states, from New York to Washington, in both new and existing markets. In many cases, the new stores will be located in higher income markets. This is on the heels of Trade Joe’s securing the top spot in the American Consumer Satisfaction Index’s 2026 supermarket rankings. “We are actively looking at hundreds of neighborhoods across the country as we hope to open more new neighborhood stores each year,” a spokesperson for Trader Joe’s said in a release.
Visits to Trader Joe’s have increased 7.3% since last year according to Placer.ai. Growth is coming from new shoppers, and the biggest growth in visits is in the South with a 15.8% increase.
Trader Joe’s maintains “the store is our brand,” and people go to their stores to find something new. They sell fewer products (5,000) compared to traditional grocers (40,000), and 80% of those products are their own Trader Joe’s Brand. Despite their continued growth, Trader Joe’s will not offer online shopping as they have said delivery “would only just add cost,” and those costs would eventually show up on the price tag.
Takeaway: Trader Joe’s continues to expand its foodprint across the US, and by earning the top spot in the American Consumer Satisfaction Index, their consumer-focused pricing strategy is proving to be very successful.
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Aldi, Target, Sam’s Club, and Others Are Once Again Offering Thanksgiving Meal Deals
The trend of giving consumers Thanksgiving meals deals will continue again in 2026. This year, Aldi’s dinner for 10 is priced at less than $39 (under $4 per person), which is slightly less than the 2025 price of $40. However, the sale prices for the 15 items that make up that deal are not all effective at the same time, with varying start dates from October 14th through November 11th.
Target announced on October 22nd, it will offer nearly 60 new food and beverage items ahead of Thanksgiving, including a $30 Thanksgiving meal that serves 6, which is the same $5 per person price as last year. The new Target items consist of an “expanded assortment” of $5 sides, pies, appetizers, and wine — including mashed potatoes, roasted vegetables, and more than 10 new Good & Gather frozen options — according to the news release.
Sam’s Club will offer a $10 per person deal that feeds 16 people, and Lidl’s Thanksgiving meal for their Plus members costs $35.86, feeds 10 people, and includes 21 items and ingredients. Wegmans’ Thanksgiving meal includes all the essentials for a traditional Thanksgiving dinner for 8 people for less than $5 per person, the same as last year’s price.
Many traditional retailers will offer a free turkey for a set spending amount, such as Giant Eagle’s offer of a turkey with $350 spend.
Takeaway: With grocery prices rising and the economy a concern for many Americans, grocery retailers are trying to provide value to their customers by offering Thanksgiving deals to keep prices affordable during this holiday.
Source: Aldi, Sam’s Club, and Others Offer Thanksgiving Meal Deals
Grocery Prices Cool but Consumers Still Feel the Squeeze
September’s Grocery Gauge from Supermarket News came in at 52.2, the low end of “fair.” Grocery inflation was the weakest of the five categories, with a score of 32 out of 100. On the surface, prices at the shelf held steady: food-at-home prices dipped 0.1% from August and are up 1.8% over the past year, the smallest annual increase of 2026, but overall inflation tells a different story. Prices across all goods rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% year over year, with gas alone jumping 9.1% in a single month.
For shoppers, that gap matters. Even with grocery prices steady, higher costs at the fuel pump and elsewhere are squeezing household budgets, and it shows in how people shop. Store visits were flat year over year and fell in three of four grocery store categories compared with August. Visits to value grocers dropped 0.7%, and traditional supermarkets saw a second straight month of declines. Independent grocers reported customer counts falling faster than sales, which suggests consumers are making fewer trips and buying more each time. Meanwhile, restaurant prices are up 3.5% over the year, nearly double the rate for groceries. That cost increase makes eating at home the better value for many households.
The pressure is reaching retailers, too. Albertsons launched a full review of its operations after sluggish sales and rising costs, and food and beverage retailers cut about 4,100 jobs in September. Looking ahead, the Food Industry Association warns that record-high diesel prices, and a developing Super El Niño, could push grocery prices back up in the coming months.
Takeaway: Grocery prices are steady for now, but consumers are still watching every dollar as fuel and other costs climb. Shoppers are consolidating trips, so each visit counts more. Grocers that stand out on value — whether through promotions, private label, loyalty programs, or meal solutions that beat restaurant prices — are best positioned to win those visits as we head into the holidays.
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